Again this week the trend continues...sales increased and inventory decreased across the county for Single Family Homes. Last week inventory was 3672 with pending sales at 2690 homes. This week inventory decreased to 3542, and pending units again increased to 2790.
Have we hit bottom?
I think in some areas we might have such as Evergreen, Alum Rock, Santa Teresa, Blossom Valley, Berryessa and Cambrian based on data talked about below. Things could change in some of these areas when the backlog of new foreclosures hit the market, but only time will tell this.
Here is the data of sales by area, comparing single family homes by MLS area, from April 14th to today May 13th.
| City/Area | May 13th Inventory | May 13th Pending | change in inventory since last month | change in pending since last month |
| Almaden Valley (13) | 121 | 51 | -3.2% | 59.4% |
| Alum Rock (4) | 304 | 444 | -26.2% | 14.1% |
| Berryessa (5) | 118 | 161 | -19.2% | 20.1% |
| Blossom Valley (12) | 139 | 179 | -15.2% | 9.1% |
| Cambrian (14) | 130 | 106 | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| Campbell (15) | 132 | 90 | -15.4% | 40.6% |
| Central San Jose (9) | 179 | 171 | -16.7% | 23.0% |
| Cupertino (18) | 163 | 84 | -2.4% | 52.7% |
| Evergreen (3) | 218 | 241 | -13.5% | 13.1% |
| Los Gatos/Monte Sereno (16) | 208 | 50 | -3.3% | 19.0% |
| Milpitas (6) | 52 | 92 | -33.3% | 1.1% |
| Morgan Hill / Gilroy / San Martin (1) | 372 | 344 | -15.3% | 10.3% |
| Santa Clara (8) | 153 | 104 | -3.8% | -5.5% |
| Santa Teresa (2) | 52 | 77 | -26.8% | 18.5% |
| Saratoga (17) | 174 | 33 | 8.1% | 50.0% |
| South San Jose (11) | 193 | 284 | -18.2% | 15.4% |
| Sunnyvale (19) | 144 | 97 | -7.1% | 36.6% |
| Willow Glen (10) | 206 | 105 | -1.4% | 15.4% |
Looking through this data, several areas stick out. Alum Rock, Berryessa, Campbell, Central San Jose (area 9), Evergreen and Santa Teresa all had significant inventory drops AND sales increases. These areas are driving the county data reported in the opening paragraph. All of these areas, except Campbell have more pending sales than inventory left. More sales than inventory says that deals are hot and happening in these areas! Since this trend has continued in the above listed areas, these areas (Alum Rock, Berryessa, Central San Jose (area 9), Evergreen and Santa Teresa) are likely hitting bottom or at least coming to a stabilization period.
If you are thinking of buying but have not quite jumped 100% into the search, I truly believe you should make a move now, whether the market is at the exact bottom or not. Here's why: Interest rates are phenomenal and as the economy begins to improve the Federal Reserve will likely increase the rate meaning interest rates could go up and rates have a tendency to move quickly, ask any home buyer. This likely interest rate change can make more of a monthly impact to your pocketbook than another slight home price decrease. How is that? Read on...
Did you know that today's Jumbo-conforming loan (upto $729,000) can be locked at 4.875% which would give you a $3857/month payment. If interest rates just go up to 6% (they were higher than this in just October 08-just 7 months ago), then your payment would be $4370, a $512 difference! This interest rate change can happen pretty quickly which is why I say now is the time to buy. Prices are great (maybe they drop a bit more or maybe they don't), interest rates are at all time lows, what a better combination of factors can you have?
These two factors together give you extra buying power, so take advantage now.
Do you feel now is the time to buy too?
